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Punters
are your enemy
Punters
psychology versus your own. The herd versus the value bets.
This is the real challenge in betting on horses and dogs.
The bookmaker has to respond to the weight of money put on by
the other backers and shorten the odds - often far beyond the
point where it makes sense for anyone to continue putting
money on. But people still do!
OK it is a matter of judgement how far prices can shorten and
still represent a whorthwhile bet. But you must resist the
temptation to follow the herd. The experts who prepare the
tissue prices published in the RacingPost, and the bookmakers
who prepare their own, are not mugs. If the prices have
shortend up a lot compared to the tissue then you would
usually do better, over a period of time, by placing your
money on an alternative. Usually, the second or third
favourite would be the best option. Believe me, if you alway
go with the shortened favourite you will lose over time. The
statistics say it is certain.
The fact is, you are competing with the crowd, not with the
bookmaker.
Always remember that.
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