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Punters
are your enemy
Punters
psychology versus your own. The herd versus the value bets. This
is the real challenge in betting on horses and dogs. The
bookmaker has to respond to the weight of money put on by the other
backers and shorten the odds - often far beyond the point where
it makes sense for anyone to continue putting money on. But people
still do!
OK it is a matter of judgement how far prices can shorten and still
represent a whorthwhile bet. But you must resist the temptation
to follow the herd. The experts who prepare the tissue prices published
in the RacingPost, and the bookmakers who prepare their own, are
not mugs. If the prices have shortend up a lot compared to the tissue
then you would usually do better, over a period of time, by placing
your money on an alternative. Usually, the second or third favourite
would be the best option. Believe me, if you alway go with the shortened
favourite you will lose over time. The statistics say it is certain.
The fact is, you are competing with the crowd, not with the bookmaker.
Always remember that.
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