Punters are your enemy

Punters psychology versus your own. The herd versus the value bets. This is the real challenge in betting on horses and dogs. The bookmaker has to respond to the weight of money put on by the other backers and shorten the odds - often far beyond the point where it makes sense for anyone to continue putting money on. But people still do!

OK it is a matter of judgement how far prices can shorten and still represent a whorthwhile bet. But you must resist the temptation to follow the herd. The experts who prepare the tissue prices published in the RacingPost, and the bookmakers who prepare their own, are not mugs. If the prices have shortend up a lot compared to the tissue then you would usually do better, over a period of time, by placing your money on an alternative. Usually, the second or third favourite would be the best option. Believe me, if you alway go with the shortened favourite you will lose over time. The statistics say it is certain.

The fact is, you are competing with the crowd, not with the bookmaker.

Always remember that.

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copyright © 2000 Doug Bruce Enterprises Doug Bruce, Dept. NS1,  FREEPOST LON 10847, London NW4 2YR